20 elections · each predicted by models fitted without it
What the economy and the mood said, election by election
For each year: the out-of-sample forecast from the economy line and the mood line, and what actually happened to the party holding the White House.
| Year | In power | Economy said | Mood said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1948 | Democrats | 51.3% | 48.7% ✗ | Won, 52.3% |
| 1952 | Democrats | 49.3% | 46.2% | Lost, 44.7% |
| 1956 | Republicans | 52.9% | 61.4% | Won, 57.1% |
| 1960 | Republicans | 51.6% ✗ | 56.2% ✗ | Lost, 49.9% |
| 1964 | Democrats | 58.7% | 60.6% | Won, 61.2% |
| 1968 | Democrats | 49.6% | 49.2% | Lost, 49.4% |
| 1972 | Republicans | 57.1% | 55.0% | Won, 61.8% |
| 1976 | Republicans | 49.0% | 50.5% ✗ | Lost, 49.0% |
| 1980 | Democrats | 46.5% | 49.9% | Lost, 44.8% |
| 1984 | Republicans | 57.7% | 54.6% | Won, 59.1% |
| 1988 | Republicans | 50.7% | 50.4% | Won, 53.8% |
| 1992 | Republicans | 48.9% | 47.4% | Lost, 46.4% |
| 1996 | Democrats | 53.4% | 53.9% | Won, 54.7% |
| 2000 | Democrats | 52.2% | 51.9% | Won, 50.3% |
| 2004 | Republicans | 55.3% | 52.6% | Won, 51.2% |
| 2008 | Republicans | 45.4% | 43.4% | Lost, 46.3% |
| 2012 | Democrats | 52.4% | 52.3% | Won, 52.0% |
| 2016 | Democrats | 47.6% ✗ | 50.1% | Won, 51.2% |
| 2020 | Republicans | 53.2% ✗ | 50.4% ✗ | Lost, 47.8% |
| 2024 | Democrats | 50.4% ✗ | 49.9% | Lost, 49.2% |
Shares are of the two-party popular vote for the party holding the White House. ✗ marks a forecast that picked the wrong popular-vote winner. Full method on the backtest page.