1984 presidential election · popular vote · forecasts fitted without 1984
1984: the economy and the mood both pointed to a win for the Republicans, and they won
The Republicans held the White House and the sitting president was on the ballot. They won the two-party popular vote with 59.1%.
Two-party popular vote, not the Electoral College. Out-of-sample: each model fitted on the other 19 elections. Sources: Ray Fair (vote shares 1948–2020), FEC (2024), FRED/ALFRED (BEA, BLS, Census), FOMC projections; model fits by this site; Gallup June approval.
| Model | Forecast | Error | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Economy line | 57.7% | −1.4 | ✓ right |
| Fair | 58.3% | −0.8 | ✓ right |
| Bread and Peace | 56.7% | −2.4 | ✓ right |
| Mood line | 54.6% | −4.5 | ✓ right |
| Time for Change | 55.9% | −3.2 | ✓ right |
What went into the forecasts
| Input | 1984 | Average | Used by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Growth per person, election year (% a year) | 5.7 | 1.8 | Fair |
| Inflation over the term (% a year) | 5.3 | 3.1 | Fair |
| Quarters of strong growth (of 15) | 6 | 4 | Fair |
| Real income growth per person (weighted) (% a year) | 4.1 | 1.5 | Bread and Peace |
| US war deaths in the term (thousand) | 0.0 | 2.9 | Bread and Peace |
| GDP growth, April–June (% a year) | 7.5 | 1.3 | Time for Change |
| June net approval (Gallup) (points) | 18 | 4 | Mood, Time for Change |
| Unemployment, September (%) | 7.3 | 5.5 | Context only |
Economic inputs are the figures as first published before election day. The Republicans had held the White House for 1 term.
Economies most like 1984’s
- 1972: the Republicans held the White House and won with 61.8%.
- 1976: the Republicans held the White House and lost with 49.0%.
- 1988: the Republicans held the White House and won with 53.8%.
Closest by growth, inflation, unemployment and real income growth, measured in standard deviations (growth per person, inflation over the term, unemployment, real income growth per person).
Where each number comes from
- result: Fair atbl1.txt VP (Democratic two-party share)
- party running duration: Fair atbl1.txt I, DPER, DUR
- fair inputs: computed from GNPC96@1984-10-19 and GNPDEF@1984-10-19, through term quarter 15
- q2 growth: advance estimate: GNPC96@1984-07-23 (first-release)
- income: DSPI@1984-10-18 (first-release) / population B230RC0Q173SBEA, deflated by CPIAUCSL (first-release; vintages 1982-05-21 1982-08-24 1982-11-23 1983-02-25 1983-05-24 1983-08-23 1983-11-23 1984-02-24 1984-05-22 1984-08-22 1984-10-24)
- approval: Ronald Reagan, Gallup 1984-06-22-1984-06-25: 54/36. https://news.gallup.com/wwwv7interactives/json/ALLPRESIDENTS/codename.aspx ; https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iEl565M1mICTubTtoxXMdxzaHzAcPTnb3kpRndsrfyY/export?format=csv&gid=1957483948
- fatalities: zero per Hibbs (2007) Table A1