1948–2024 · each election predicted by a model fitted without it
The economy line called 16 of 20 elections; the mood line, 16
Every number here is out of sample: to predict 1980, the model was fitted on the other 19 elections. Economic inputs are the figures published before each election day wherever they exist.
Predicted vs. actual share for the party in power, 1948–2024
Black line: what happened. Circle: economy line. Square: mood line. Shaded half: the party in power won.
Actual resultEconomy lineMood line
Share of the two-party popular vote won by the party holding the White House (D or R shown). ✓ = called the winner. Sources: Ray Fair (vote shares 1948–2020), FEC (2024), FRED/ALFRED (BEA, BLS, Census), FOMC projections; model fits by this site; Gallup June approval.
Show the numbers
| Year | Party in power | Actual | Economy line | Mood line | Fair | Bread and Peace | Time for Change | Three-model economy line | Data |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1948 | D | 52.3% | 51.3% | 48.7% ✗ | 47.9% ✗ | 57.5% | 50.0% ✗ | 50.9% | revised |
| 1952 | D | 44.7% | 49.3% | 46.2% | 46.7% | 53.9% ✗ | 46.1% | 48.4% | revised |
| 1956 | R | 57.1% | 52.9% | 61.4% | 53.0% | 52.6% | 60.3% | 54.9% | revised |
| 1960 | R | 49.9% | 51.6% ✗ | 56.2% ✗ | 52.2% ✗ | 50.4% ✗ | 54.8% ✗ | 52.4% ✗ | revised |
| 1964 | D | 61.2% | 58.7% | 60.6% | 58.1% | 59.8% | 60.2% | 59.1% | earliest-available |
| 1968 | D | 49.4% | 49.6% | 49.2% | 54.7% ✗ | 40.3% | 49.6% | 49.6% | earliest-available |
| 1972 | R | 61.8% | 57.1% | 55.0% | 58.1% | 55.3% | 56.3% | 56.9% | earliest-available |
| 1976 | R | 49.0% | 49.0% | 50.5% ✗ | 47.4% | 51.9% ✗ | 50.5% ✗ | 49.4% | earliest-available |
| 1980 | D | 44.8% | 46.5% | 49.9% | 46.7% | 46.2% | 49.2% | 47.2% | first-release |
| 1984 | R | 59.1% | 57.7% | 54.6% | 58.3% | 56.7% | 55.9% | 57.2% | first-release |
| 1988 | R | 53.8% | 50.7% | 50.4% | 48.8% ✗ | 54.2% | 50.0% | 50.5% | first-release |
| 1992 | R | 46.4% | 48.9% | 47.4% | 49.2% | 48.2% | 47.4% | 48.5% | first-release |
| 1996 | D | 54.7% | 53.4% | 53.9% | 54.4% | 51.6% | 54.9% | 53.8% | first-release |
| 2000 | D | 50.3% | 52.2% | 51.9% | 52.8% | 51.0% | 51.8% | 52.1% | first-release |
| 2004 | R | 51.2% | 55.3% | 52.6% | 58.0% | 50.2% | 53.7% | 54.9% | first-release |
| 2008 | R | 46.3% | 45.4% | 43.4% | 46.9% | 42.8% | 44.3% | 45.1% | first-release |
| 2012 | D | 52.0% | 52.4% | 52.3% | 53.7% | 50.1% | 53.2% | 52.6% | first-release |
| 2016 | D | 51.2% | 47.6% ✗ | 50.1% | 45.1% ✗ | 52.1% | 49.4% ✗ | 48.1% ✗ | first-release |
| 2020 | R | 47.8% | 53.2% ✗ | 50.4% ✗ | 50.4% ✗ | 58.5% ✗ | 31.2% | 47.3% | first-release |
| 2024 | D | 49.2% | 50.4% ✗ | 49.9% | 49.1% | 52.6% ✗ | 51.7% ✗ | 50.7% ✗ | first-release |
Accuracy by model
| Model | Typical error (pts) | Winners called | Misses |
|---|---|---|---|
| Economy line | ±2.8 | 16 of 20 | 1960, 2016, 2020, 2024 |
| Mood line | ±3.2 | 16 of 20 | 1948, 1960, 1976, 2020 |
| Fair | ±3.4 | 14 of 20 | 1948, 1960, 1968, 1988, 2016, 2020 |
| Bread and Peace | ±4.7 | 15 of 20 | 1952, 1960, 1976, 2020, 2024 |
| Time for Change | ±4.6 | 15 of 20 | 1948, 1960, 1976, 2016, 2024 |
| Three-model economy line | ±2.4 | 17 of 20 | 1960, 2016, 2024 |
“Typical error” is the root mean squared error of the out-of-sample predictions. Data before 1980 is partly revised or earliest-available rather than first-release; each year’s tag is in the table above.