Economy vs. Mood

What if… · popular vote, not Electoral College

Set your own 2028 economy and see what the models say

Each input starts at today’s value. The same stored coefficients drive the daily forecast, so with nothing moved the numbers match the home page.

1.4

% a year; today 1.4. Used by Fair.

3.6

% a year; today 3.6. Used by Fair.

5

of 15; today 5. Used by Fair.

−0.8

% a year; today −0.8. Used by Bread and Peace.

2.2

% a year; today 2.2. Used by Time for Change.

−22

points; today −22. Used by Mood, Time for Change.

Reset to today

Economy
55%
50.3% Republican share · today 55%
Mood
43%
49.5% Republican share · today 43%

In this scenario the economy line is 12 points above the mood line.

Chance Republicans win the popular vote, by model
ModelShareChance
Fair51.6%68%
Bread and Peace47.9%33%
Time for Change50.8%57%
Mood49.5%43%
Three-model economy line50.5%58%

Two-party popular vote, not the Electoral College. A moved income figure applies evenly to every quarter of the term. Chances use each model’s leave-one-out error, so even a strong economy rarely gives certainty. How the models work.