Growth, inflation, unemployment, real income · as of October 16, 2026
Today’s economy looks most like 2024’s
In 2024 the Democrats held the White House and lost the popular vote with 49.2%. Similar economies don’t guarantee similar results: candidates, wars and scandals differ.
Today’s values use the latest published quarters. Source: FRED/ALFRED (BEA, BLS, Census); unemployment is September of each election year and the latest month today (Sep 2026). As of October 16, 2026.
Show the numbers
| Indicator | Today | 2024 | 2004 | 1996 | 2000 | 1960 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth per person (% a year) | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.7 |
| Inflation over the term (% a year) | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| Unemployment (%) | 4.2 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 5.5 |
| Real income growth per person (% a year) | −0.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
The five closest years
| Year | Distance | In power | Result (share) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.64 | Democrats | Lost, 49.2% |
| 2004 | 0.68 | Republicans | Won, 51.2% |
| 1996 | 0.69 | Democrats | Won, 54.7% |
| 2000 | 0.70 | Democrats | Won, 50.3% |
| 1960 | 0.74 | Republicans | Lost, 49.9% |
Growth and inflation are Fair’s measures (election-year growth per person and inflation over the term, annualized); real income growth is Bread and Peace’s weighted average. Past years use the figures published before each election where they exist. 1948 is left out because its inflation term is set to zero by Fair’s war-year convention.