Explainer · numbers from this site’s backtest, updated with each run
Does approval predict elections?
Quite well. A model using only the president’s June net approval (and whether the party is in its first term) called 16 of 20 popular-vote winners from 1948 to 2024 out of sample, with a typical miss of ±3.2 points.
The pattern
Two-party popular vote, not the Electoral College. Source: Gallup June approval (1948–2024); Ray Fair (vote shares 1948–2020), FEC (2024); today’s approval: averages compiled by Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0). As of October 16, 2026.
Show the numbers
| Year | Net approval | Share | Mood model |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1948 | −4 | 52.3% | wrong winner |
| 1952 | −26 | 44.7% | right winner |
| 1956 | 55 | 57.1% | right winner |
| 1960 | 37 | 49.9% | wrong winner |
| 1964 | 59 | 61.2% | right winner |
| 1968 | −3 | 49.4% | right winner |
| 1972 | 23 | 61.8% | right winner |
| 1976 | 5 | 49.0% | wrong winner |
| 1980 | −27 | 44.8% | right winner |
| 1984 | 18 | 59.1% | right winner |
| 1988 | 8 | 53.8% | right winner |
| 1992 | −17 | 46.4% | right winner |
| 1996 | 10 | 54.7% | right winner |
| 2000 | 15 | 50.3% | right winner |
| 2004 | −1 | 51.2% | right winner |
| 2008 | −40 | 46.3% | right winner |
| 2012 | −2 | 52.0% | right winner |
| 2016 | 4 | 51.2% | right winner |
| 2020 | −19 | 47.8% | wrong winner |
| 2024 | −20 | 49.2% | right winner |
The correlation between June approval and the result is 0.79. Out of sample, the Mood model missed the winner in 1948, 1960, 1976, 2020.
Why approval works
Approval is a running verdict on the party in power. It already contains much of what voters think about the economy, plus everything else: wars, scandals, competence. That is why it predicts well, and also why it isn’t independent of the economic models.
Its limits
- It is measured in June, five months before the vote. Opinions can move.
- With no incumbent on the ballot, as in 2028, the sitting president’s approval is a proxy for how voters see the party.
- The backtest uses Gallup’s last June poll for every year. For 2028 the site uses the median of several published polling averages, which is steadier than any single poll.
What it says about 2028
Net approval today is −22. The Mood line gives Republicans 49.5% of the two-party vote and a 43% chance of winning it. See how the consensus is built on the Mood page.