Economy vs. Mood

Free to download · updated with every daily run

Every number on this site, as a spreadsheet

CSV files open in Excel, Google Sheets or any data tool. Please cite the site when you use them.

  • Daily forecasts (forecasts.csv)

    Every stored forecast of the 2028 Republican two-party popular-vote share and win chance, by day, model and mode.

    Our model output; economic inputs are US government data (public domain). Free to reuse with the citation below.

  • Backtest, 1948–2024 (backtest.csv)

    Leave-one-out predictions of the incumbent party’s two-party share for each election, by model: each year predicted by a model fitted without it.

    Our model output; economic inputs are US government data (public domain). Free to reuse with the citation below.

  • Model inputs by election (elections.csv)

    The inputs each model used for every election, 1948–2024, with the data-vintage tag (first-release, earliest available, or revised).

    Economic inputs: US government data (public domain). Vote shares: Ray Fair (Yale) and the FEC. June approval: Gallup. War deaths: Douglas Hibbs. Please cite those sources too.

  • Daily approval consensus (approval-consensus.csv)

    The median net approval of the polling averages updated in the last 14 days, as computed each day, with how many averages it used.

    Compiled from the approval table by Wikipedia contributors; shared under CC BY-SA 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/).

  • Every approval reading (approval-readings.csv)

    Each polling average’s approve and disapprove figures as read from Wikipedia, with the page revision and whether the rule set it aside.

    Compiled from the approval table by Wikipedia contributors; shared under CC BY-SA 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/).

How to cite

Economy vs. Mood (https://economyvsmood.com), data downloaded October 17, 2026.

The approval files are built from the table compiled by Wikipedia contributors and are shared under the same licence, CC BY-SA 4.0: you may reuse and adapt them if you credit the source and share your version under the same terms. Economic inputs are US government data. Model output is ours; reuse it freely with the citation above.

Embed a chart

The home page gap chart and each model’s forecast chart can be embedded on your own site. Look for “Embed this chart” under each one.