Economy vs. Mood

Approval consensus · October 16, 2026

Net approval is −22.4: more people disapprove of the president than approve

The Mood line turns that into a 43% chance that Republicans win the 2028 popular vote. The number is the median of 9 published polling averages, so no single poll or pollster drives it.

Approval consensus: −22.4 net
Tracking began October 14, 2026.

Source: Approval averages compiled by Wikipedia contributors, CC BY-SA 4.0: CNN, FiftyPlusOne, The Economist, The New York Times, Silver Bulletin, Ballotpedia, NBC News, Real Clear Politics, Decision Desk HQ. As of October 16, 2026.

Show the numbers
DateMedian net approvalAverages used
October 14, 2026−22.49
October 15, 2026−22.49
October 16, 2026−22.49

Every polling average in today’s number

Latest reading of each average, as listed on Wikipedia (revision 1380551408)
AverageUpdatedApproveDisapproveNetUsed
CNNOct 1333.0%66.0%−33.0Yes
FiftyPlusOneOct 1334.6%61.9%−27.3Yes
The EconomistOct 1335.0%61.0%−26.0Yes
The New York TimesOct 1337.0%60.0%−23.0Yes
Silver BulletinOct 1337.3%59.7%−22.4Yes
BallotpediaOct 1338.0%60.0%−22.0Yes
NBC NewsOct 1338.0%60.0%−22.0Yes
Real Clear PoliticsOct 1338.4%59.5%−21.1Yes
Decision Desk HQOct 1339.2%58.8%−19.6Yes

Rule: the median of averages updated in the last 14 days, at least 3. A reading is set aside if approve + disapprove exceeds 100, its date doesn’t parse, or it jumps more than 10 points. Readings compiled by Wikipedia contributors, CC BY-SA 4.0; our compiled table is shared under the same licence.

How households see their finances

Context, not a model input: the New York Fed’s monthly survey starts in 2013, too late to backtest. In Sep 2026, people expecting to be worse off a year from now outnumbered those expecting to be better off by 10 points.

Expect to be better off minus worse off a year from now (pts)
Sep 2026: −10.4

Source: Survey of Consumer Expectations, New York Fed. As of Sep 2026.

Show the numbers
MonthValue
Sep 2026−10.4
Aug 2026−6.8
Jul 2026−3.9
Jun 2026−6.7
May 2026−13.1
Apr 2026−8.0
Mar 2026−9.8
Feb 2026−0.6
Jan 2026−0.4
Dec 20253.1
Nov 2025−5.0
Oct 2025−4.2
Sep 2025−3.1
Aug 20251.5
Jul 20251.5
Jun 2025−4.0
May 2025−7.8
Apr 2025−9.3
Mar 2025−1.3
Feb 20256.3
Jan 202515.6
Dec 202416.4
Nov 202417.0
Oct 20247.1
Sep 20246.9
Aug 20245.5
Jul 20246.9
Jun 202410.5
May 202411.0
Apr 20248.2
Mar 20249.6
Feb 202410.0
Jan 202410.6
Dec 20235.4
Nov 2023−1.7
Oct 2023−3.0
Sep 2023−3.4
Aug 2023−5.4
Jul 20232.7
Jun 2023−4.1
May 2023−6.7
Apr 2023−1.8
Mar 20230.8
Feb 2023−0.1
Jan 2023−6.0
Dec 2022−3.8
Nov 2022−9.2
Oct 2022−14.6
Sep 2022−8.5
Aug 2022−7.2
Jul 2022−16.8
Jun 2022−22.9
May 2022−18.9
Apr 2022−5.5
Mar 2022−14.4
Feb 2022−1.5
Jan 2022−2.9
Dec 2021−0.1
Nov 2021−1.4
Oct 20212.6
Sep 20216.3
Aug 20215.9
Jul 20215.6
Jun 202112.5
May 202112.5
Apr 202116.9
Mar 202116.8
Feb 202115.7
Jan 202113.2
Dec 202013.1
Nov 202010.7
Oct 202013.6
Sep 202019.7
Aug 202011.4
Jul 20205.0
Jun 202013.6
May 20202.6
Apr 2020−5.0
Mar 20203.4
Feb 202032.4
Jan 202031.8
Dec 201934.3
Nov 201933.0
Oct 201929.0
Sep 201925.0
Aug 201928.5
Jul 201933.1
Jun 201931.9
May 201925.4
Apr 201930.5
Mar 201928.1
Feb 201928.9
Jan 201923.7
Dec 201827.7
Nov 201830.0
Oct 201830.5
Sep 201827.8
Aug 201833.1
Jul 201829.4
Jun 201830.6
May 201827.9
Apr 201832.3
Mar 201832.1
Feb 201835.4
Jan 201833.1
Dec 201731.7
Nov 201729.6
Oct 201729.5
Sep 201727.5
Aug 201730.3
Jul 201729.1
Jun 201730.4
May 201728.0
Apr 201733.4
Mar 201730.7
Feb 201726.8
Jan 201727.4
Dec 201625.9
Nov 201619.4
Oct 201616.6
Sep 201619.1
Aug 201621.0
Jul 201619.3
Jun 201616.7
May 201618.1
Apr 201622.4
Mar 201620.8
Feb 201619.8
Jan 201619.6
Dec 201519.6
Nov 201518.5
Oct 201520.8
Sep 201522.6
Aug 201521.7
Jul 201522.6
Jun 201525.2
May 201524.0
Apr 201527.6
Mar 201524.3
Feb 201526.7
Jan 201524.2
Dec 201423.4
Nov 201421.8
Oct 201415.5
Sep 201418.1
Aug 201419.4
Jul 201416.2
Jun 201415.7
May 201414.2
Apr 201413.6
Mar 201415.0
Feb 201416.7
Jan 201415.3
Dec 20136.8
Nov 20135.9
Oct 20135.1
Sep 20139.9
Aug 201312.9
Jul 201310.3
Jun 201313.9
Median expected inflation, one year ahead (%)
Sep 2026: 3.9

Source: Survey of Consumer Expectations, New York Fed. As of Sep 2026.

Show the numbers
MonthValue
Sep 20263.9
Aug 20263.6
Jul 20263.6
Jun 20263.7
May 20263.5
Apr 20263.6
Mar 20263.4
Feb 20263.0
Jan 20263.1
Dec 20253.4
Nov 20253.2
Oct 20253.2
Sep 20253.4
Aug 20253.2
Jul 20253.1
Jun 20253.0
May 20253.2
Apr 20253.6
Mar 20253.6
Feb 20253.1
Jan 20253.0
Dec 20243.0
Nov 20243.0
Oct 20242.9
Sep 20243.0
Aug 20243.0
Jul 20243.0
Jun 20243.0
May 20243.2
Apr 20243.3
Mar 20243.0
Feb 20243.0
Jan 20243.0
Dec 20233.0
Nov 20233.4
Oct 20233.6
Sep 20233.7
Aug 20233.6
Jul 20233.5
Jun 20233.8
May 20234.1
Apr 20234.4
Mar 20234.7
Feb 20234.2
Jan 20235.0
Dec 20225.0
Nov 20225.2
Oct 20225.9
Sep 20225.4
Aug 20225.7
Jul 20226.2
Jun 20226.8
May 20226.6
Apr 20226.3
Mar 20226.6
Feb 20226.0
Jan 20225.8
Dec 20216.0
Nov 20216.0
Oct 20215.7
Sep 20215.3
Aug 20215.2
Jul 20214.8
Jun 20214.8
May 20214.0
Apr 20213.4
Mar 20213.2
Feb 20213.1
Jan 20213.0
Dec 20203.0
Nov 20203.0
Oct 20202.8
Sep 20203.0
Aug 20203.0
Jul 20202.9
Jun 20202.7
May 20203.0
Apr 20202.6
Mar 20202.5
Feb 20202.5
Jan 20202.5
Dec 20192.5
Nov 20192.3
Oct 20192.3
Sep 20192.5
Aug 20192.4
Jul 20192.6
Jun 20192.7
May 20192.5
Apr 20192.6
Mar 20192.8
Feb 20192.8
Jan 20193.0
Dec 20183.0
Nov 20183.0
Oct 20183.0
Sep 20183.0
Aug 20183.0
Jul 20183.0
Jun 20183.0
May 20183.0
Apr 20183.0
Mar 20182.8
Feb 20182.8
Jan 20182.7
Dec 20172.8
Nov 20172.6
Oct 20172.6
Sep 20172.5
Aug 20172.5
Jul 20172.5
Jun 20172.5
May 20172.6
Apr 20172.8
Mar 20172.7
Feb 20173.0
Jan 20173.0
Dec 20162.8
Nov 20162.5
Oct 20162.6
Sep 20162.5
Aug 20162.8
Jul 20162.5
Jun 20162.5
May 20162.6
Apr 20162.6
Mar 20162.5
Feb 20162.7
Jan 20162.4
Dec 20152.5
Nov 20152.6
Oct 20152.8
Sep 20152.7
Aug 20152.8
Jul 20153.0
Jun 20153.0
May 20153.0
Apr 20152.7
Mar 20152.9
Feb 20152.8
Jan 20152.9
Dec 20143.0
Nov 20143.0
Oct 20143.0
Sep 20143.0
Aug 20143.0
Jul 20143.1
Jun 20143.2
May 20143.2
Apr 20143.3
Mar 20143.2
Feb 20143.1
Jan 20143.0
Dec 20133.1
Nov 20133.2
Oct 20133.2
Sep 20133.4
Aug 20133.4
Jul 20133.2
Jun 20133.1
Chance the U.S. unemployment rate is higher a year from now (%)
Sep 2026: 43.9

Source: Survey of Consumer Expectations, New York Fed. As of Sep 2026.

Show the numbers
MonthValue
Sep 202643.9
Aug 202644.4
Jul 202642.8
Jun 202641.7
May 202643.2
Apr 202643.9
Mar 202643.5
Feb 202639.9
Jan 202641.9
Dec 202541.8
Nov 202542.1
Oct 202542.5
Sep 202541.1
Aug 202539.1
Jul 202537.4
Jun 202539.7
May 202540.8
Apr 202544.1
Mar 202544.0
Feb 202539.4
Jan 202534.0
Dec 202434.6
Nov 202435.0
Oct 202434.5
Sep 202436.2
Aug 202437.7
Jul 202436.6
Jun 202437.6
May 202438.6
Apr 202437.2
Mar 202436.2
Feb 202436.1
Jan 202437.2
Dec 202337.0
Nov 202338.4
Oct 202338.6
Sep 202340.1
Aug 202338.5
Jul 202336.7
Jun 202337.7
May 202340.0
Apr 202341.8
Mar 202340.7
Feb 202339.4
Jan 202341.2
Dec 202240.8
Nov 202242.2
Oct 202242.9
Sep 202239.1
Aug 202240.0
Jul 202240.2
Jun 202240.4
May 202238.6
Apr 202236.3
Mar 202236.2
Feb 202234.4
Jan 202235.9
Dec 202135.2
Nov 202136.1
Oct 202135.5
Sep 202135.8
Aug 202135.0
Jul 202131.7
Jun 202130.7
May 202131.9
Apr 202134.6
Mar 202134.4
Feb 202139.1
Jan 202140.2
Dec 202038.9
Nov 202040.1
Oct 202035.4
Sep 202036.4
Aug 202039.1
Jul 202039.3
Jun 202035.1
May 202038.9
Apr 202047.6
Mar 202050.9
Feb 202034.1
Jan 202034.8
Dec 201934.6
Nov 201934.6
Oct 201936.8
Sep 201938.4
Aug 201938.3
Jul 201936.1
Jun 201936.3
May 201936.7
Apr 201935.7
Mar 201937.2
Feb 201937.2
Jan 201940.6
Dec 201838.8
Nov 201835.8
Oct 201835.1
Sep 201834.1
Aug 201835.3
Jul 201834.2
Jun 201834.3
May 201834.1
Apr 201834.9
Mar 201834.4
Feb 201832.2
Jan 201832.4
Dec 201733.4
Nov 201733.7
Oct 201736.0
Sep 201735.7
Aug 201735.4
Jul 201736.0
Jun 201736.3
May 201737.5
Apr 201736.5
Mar 201735.5
Feb 201735.8
Jan 201737.3
Dec 201638.7
Nov 201637.2
Oct 201638.8
Sep 201639.4
Aug 201639.5
Jul 201637.5
Jun 201638.1
May 201639.1
Apr 201639.3
Mar 201637.4
Feb 201637.9
Jan 201638.1
Dec 201537.8
Nov 201537.1
Oct 201537.1
Sep 201536.4
Aug 201537.0
Jul 201535.5
Jun 201535.7
May 201534.6
Apr 201536.0
Mar 201535.8
Feb 201535.0
Jan 201534.6
Dec 201433.4
Nov 201433.9
Oct 201435.8
Sep 201437.5
Aug 201435.3
Jul 201437.0
Jun 201437.6
May 201438.5
Apr 201439.0
Mar 201440.7
Feb 201440.4
Jan 201439.8
Dec 201338.8
Nov 201339.9
Oct 201344.4
Sep 201341.3
Aug 201342.5
Jul 201338.6
Jun 201335.7
Chance of losing your job in the next 12 months (%)
Sep 2026: 13.5

Source: Survey of Consumer Expectations, New York Fed. As of Sep 2026.

Show the numbers
MonthValue
Sep 202613.5
Aug 202613.8
Jul 202614.2
Jun 202614.1
May 202615.1
Apr 202614.6
Mar 202614.4
Feb 202613.8
Jan 202614.8
Dec 202515.2
Nov 202513.8
Oct 202514.0
Sep 202514.9
Aug 202514.5
Jul 202514.4
Jun 202514.0
May 202514.8
Apr 202515.3
Mar 202515.7
Feb 202514.1
Jan 202514.2
Dec 202411.9
Nov 202413.5
Oct 202413.0
Sep 202413.3
Aug 202413.3
Jul 202414.3
Jun 202414.8
May 202412.4
Apr 202415.1
Mar 202415.7
Feb 202414.5
Jan 202411.8
Dec 202313.4
Nov 202313.6
Oct 202312.7
Sep 202312.4
Aug 202313.8
Jul 202311.8
Jun 202312.9
May 202310.9
Apr 202312.2
Mar 202311.4
Feb 202311.8
Jan 202312.0
Dec 202212.6
Nov 202211.7
Oct 202212.0
Sep 202211.6
Aug 202211.1
Jul 202211.8
Jun 202211.9
May 202211.1
Apr 202210.8
Mar 202211.1
Feb 202210.8
Jan 202211.6
Dec 202111.6
Nov 202112.9
Oct 202111.0
Sep 202111.1
Aug 202112.4
Jul 202112.2
Jun 202110.9
May 202112.6
Apr 202115.0
Mar 202112.8
Feb 202114.2
Jan 202113.6
Dec 202015.0
Nov 202014.6
Oct 202015.5
Sep 202016.6
Aug 202018.0
Jul 202016.0
Jun 202015.0
May 202018.6
Apr 202020.9
Mar 202018.5
Feb 202013.8
Jan 202014.7
Dec 201915.4
Nov 201914.4
Oct 201914.8
Sep 201913.4
Aug 201914.1
Jul 201913.8
Jun 201913.5
May 201914.7
Apr 201913.6
Mar 201914.3
Feb 201914.5
Jan 201914.5
Dec 201813.8
Nov 201814.7
Oct 201813.5
Sep 201816.0
Aug 201813.8
Jul 201814.0
Jun 201815.2
May 201814.0
Apr 201813.7
Mar 201813.9
Feb 201812.7
Jan 201814.9
Dec 201713.8
Nov 201713.5
Oct 201715.3
Sep 201713.8
Aug 201713.8
Jul 201713.7
Jun 201713.5
May 201713.6
Apr 201713.2
Mar 201714.5
Feb 201715.0
Jan 201715.3
Dec 201615.8
Nov 201616.3
Oct 201614.0
Sep 201616.3
Aug 201615.2
Jul 201615.0
Jun 201613.8
May 201614.9
Apr 201615.8
Mar 201614.4
Feb 201613.8
Jan 201613.9
Dec 201513.5
Nov 201514.1
Oct 201512.7
Sep 201514.6
Aug 201513.5
Jul 201514.1
Jun 201514.0
May 201513.8
Apr 201514.8
Mar 201514.9
Feb 201514.3
Jan 201514.5
Dec 201414.5
Nov 201415.5
Oct 201415.9
Sep 201416.6
Aug 201414.6
Jul 201415.8
Jun 201414.7
May 201416.5
Apr 201416.1
Mar 201415.9
Feb 201416.1
Jan 201416.6
Dec 201316.8
Nov 201317.9
Oct 201316.7
Sep 201317.1
Aug 201316.5
Jul 201315.4
Jun 201314.7

Source: Survey of Consumer Expectations, © 2013-26 Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). The SCE data are available without charge at www.newyorkfed.org and may be used subject to license terms posted there. FRBNY disclaims any responsibility or legal liability for this analysis and interpretation of Survey of Consumer Expectations data.