1948 presidential election · popular vote · forecasts fitted without 1948
1948: the economy pointed to a win for the Democrats, the mood to a loss; they won
The Democrats held the White House and the sitting president was on the ballot. They won the two-party popular vote with 52.3%.
Economy said
51.3%
off by 1.1 pts · right winner
Mood said
48.7%
off by 3.6 pts · wrong winner
Forecasts against the result
Black line: what happened. Circle: economy line. Square: mood line. Shaded half: the party in power won.
Two-party popular vote, not the Electoral College. Out-of-sample: each model fitted on the other 19 elections. Sources: Ray Fair (vote shares 1948–2020), FEC (2024), FRED/ALFRED (BEA, BLS, Census), FOMC projections; model fits by this site; Gallup June approval.
| Model | Forecast | Error | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Economy line | 51.3% | −1.1 | ✓ right |
| Fair | 47.9% | −4.4 | ✗ wrong |
| Bread and Peace | 57.5% | +5.2 | ✓ right |
| Mood line | 48.7% | −3.6 | ✗ wrong |
| Time for Change | 50.0% | −2.3 | ✗ wrong |
What went into the forecasts
| Input | 1948 | Average | Used by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Growth per person, election year (% a year) | 2.2 | 1.8 | Fair |
| Inflation over the term (% a year) | 0.0 | 3.1 | Fair |
| Quarters of strong growth (of 15) | 0 | 4 | Fair |
| Real income growth per person (weighted) (% a year) | 3.6 | 1.5 | Bread and Peace |
| US war deaths in the term (thousand) | 0.0 | 2.9 | Bread and Peace |
| GDP growth, April–June (% a year) | 10.0 | 1.3 | Time for Change |
| June net approval (Gallup) (points) | −4 | 4 | Mood, Time for Change |
| Unemployment, September (%) | 3.8 | 5.5 | Context only |
Economic inputs are revised figures (no pre-election vintage is archived this far back). Inflation and strong-growth quarters are set to zero for 1948 by Fair’s war-year convention. The Democrats had held the White House for 4 terms.
Where each number comes from
- result: Fair atbl1.txt VP (Democratic two-party share)
- party running duration: Fair atbl1.txt I, DPER, DUR
- fair inputs: computed from GNPC96@1959-02-19 and GNPDEF@1965-08-19, through term quarter 15; P and Z set to 0 per Fair's war-year convention
- q2 growth: advance estimate: GNPC96@1959-02-19 (earliest-available)
- income: A229RC0Q052SBEA@today (revised), deflated by CPIAUCSL (earliest-available; vintages 1994-02-17)
- approval: Harry S. Truman, Gallup 1948-06-18-1948-06-24: 40/44. https://news.gallup.com/wwwv7interactives/json/ALLPRESIDENTS/codename.aspx ; https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iEl565M1mICTubTtoxXMdxzaHzAcPTnb3kpRndsrfyY/export?format=csv&gid=452265038
- fatalities: zero per Hibbs (2007) Table A1