2016 presidential election · popular vote · forecasts fitted without 2016
2016: the economy pointed to a loss for the Democrats, the mood to a win; they won
The Democrats held the White House, with no sitting president on the ballot. They won the two-party popular vote with 51.2%. The popular-vote winner lost the Electoral College this year; this site forecasts the popular vote only.
Two-party popular vote, not the Electoral College. Out-of-sample: each model fitted on the other 19 elections. Sources: Ray Fair (vote shares 1948–2020), FEC (2024), FRED/ALFRED (BEA, BLS, Census), FOMC projections; model fits by this site; Gallup June approval.
| Model | Forecast | Error | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Economy line | 47.6% | −3.6 | ✗ wrong |
| Fair | 45.1% | −6.0 | ✗ wrong |
| Bread and Peace | 52.1% | +0.9 | ✓ right |
| Mood line | 50.1% | −1.1 | ✓ right |
| Time for Change | 49.4% | −1.7 | ✗ wrong |
What went into the forecasts
| Input | 2016 | Average | Used by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Growth per person, election year (% a year) | 1.0 | 1.8 | Fair |
| Inflation over the term (% a year) | 1.4 | 3.1 | Fair |
| Quarters of strong growth (of 15) | 2 | 4 | Fair |
| Real income growth per person (weighted) (% a year) | 1.4 | 1.5 | Bread and Peace |
| US war deaths in the term (thousand) | 0.0 | 2.9 | Bread and Peace |
| GDP growth, April–June (% a year) | 1.2 | 1.3 | Time for Change |
| June net approval (Gallup) (points) | 4 | 4 | Mood, Time for Change |
| Unemployment, September (%) | 5.0 | 5.5 | Context only |
Economic inputs are the figures as first published before election day. The Democrats had held the White House for 2 terms.
Economies most like 2016’s
- 1996: the Democrats held the White House and won with 54.7%.
- 2004: the Republicans held the White House and won with 51.2%.
- 1988: the Republicans held the White House and won with 53.8%.
Closest by growth, inflation, unemployment and real income growth, measured in standard deviations (growth per person, inflation over the term, unemployment, real income growth per person).
Where each number comes from
- result: Fair atbl1.txt VP (Democratic two-party share)
- party running duration: Fair atbl1.txt I, DPER, DUR
- fair inputs: computed from GDPC1@2016-10-28 and GDPDEF@2016-10-28, through term quarter 15
- q2 growth: advance estimate: GDPC1@2016-07-29 (first-release)
- income: DSPI@2016-10-31 (first-release) / population B230RC0Q173SBEA, deflated by CPIAUCSL (first-release; vintages 2016-10-18)
- approval: Barack Obama, Gallup 2016-06-20-2016-06-26: 50/46. https://news.gallup.com/wwwv7interactives/json/OBAMAEXPANDED/codename.aspx ; https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iEl565M1mICTubTtoxXMdxzaHzAcPTnb3kpRndsrfyY/export?format=csv&gid=0
- fatalities: zero per Hibbs (2007) Table A1