2024 presidential election · popular vote · forecasts fitted without 2024
2024: the economy pointed to a win for the Democrats, the mood to a loss; they lost
The Democrats held the White House, with no sitting president on the ballot. They lost the two-party popular vote with 49.2%.
Two-party popular vote, not the Electoral College. Out-of-sample: each model fitted on the other 19 elections. Sources: Ray Fair (vote shares 1948–2020), FEC (2024), FRED/ALFRED (BEA, BLS, Census), FOMC projections; model fits by this site; Gallup June approval.
| Model | Forecast | Error | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Economy line | 50.4% | +1.1 | ✗ wrong |
| Fair | 49.1% | −0.1 | ✓ right |
| Bread and Peace | 52.6% | +3.3 | ✗ wrong |
| Mood line | 49.9% | +0.7 | ✓ right |
| Time for Change | 51.7% | +2.5 | ✗ wrong |
What went into the forecasts
| Input | 2024 | Average | Used by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Growth per person, election year (% a year) | 1.6 | 1.8 | Fair |
| Inflation over the term (% a year) | 4.5 | 3.1 | Fair |
| Quarters of strong growth (of 15) | 4 | 4 | Fair |
| Real income growth per person (weighted) (% a year) | 1.6 | 1.5 | Bread and Peace |
| US war deaths in the term (thousand) | 0.0 | 2.9 | Bread and Peace |
| GDP growth, April–June (% a year) | 2.8 | 1.3 | Time for Change |
| June net approval (Gallup) (points) | −20 | 4 | Mood, Time for Change |
| Unemployment, September (%) | 4.1 | 5.5 | Context only |
Economic inputs are the figures as first published before election day. The Democrats had held the White House for 1 term.
Economies most like 2024’s
- 1988: the Republicans held the White House and won with 53.8%.
- 1996: the Democrats held the White House and won with 54.7%.
- 1968: the Democrats held the White House and lost with 49.4%.
Closest by growth, inflation, unemployment and real income growth, measured in standard deviations (growth per person, inflation over the term, unemployment, real income growth per person).
Where each number comes from
- result: FEC official 2024 results: Harris 75,017,613, Trump 77,302,580
- party running duration: 2024: Democratic incumbent party, Biden withdrew (not running), first term
- fair inputs: computed from GDPC1@2024-10-30 and GDPDEF@2024-10-30, through term quarter 15
- q2 growth: advance estimate: GDPC1@2024-07-25 (first-release)
- income: DSPI@2024-10-31 (first-release) / population B230RC0Q173SBEA, deflated by CPIAUCSL (first-release; vintages 2024-10-10)
- approval: Joe Biden, Gallup 2024-06-03-2024-06-23: 38/58. https://news.gallup.com/wwwv7interactives/json/BIDENEXPANDED/codename.aspx ; https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/joseph-r-biden-public-approval
- fatalities: zero per Hibbs (2007) Table A1