2028 presidential election · popular vote · updated daily · using the Fed’s economic forecasts
Too close to call
The economy and the public mood point opposite ways.
Two-party popular vote, not the Electoral College. If the economy follows the Fed’s projections: FOMC median projections fill the quarters through mid-2028; approval is today’s. Source: FRED/ALFRED (BEA, BLS, Census), FOMC projections; model fits by this site; approval averages compiled by Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0); Gallup (1948–2024). As of October 17, 2026.
Show the numbers
| Forecast | Republicans | Democrats |
|---|---|---|
| Economy | 73% | 27% |
| Mood | 43% | 57% |
Tested on elections they hadn’t seen, the economy method picked the popular-vote winner in 17 of the last 20, the mood method in 16. Every miss is shown.
The economy forecast uses growth, prices and income since the last election. The mood forecast uses only the president’s approval rating. Popular vote means the national vote count, not the Electoral College. Same formula every day; how the words above are chosen.
Dig deeper
How the two forecasts have moved, what drives each one, and the four models behind them.
If the economy follows the Fed’s projections: FOMC median projections fill the quarters through mid-2028; approval is today’s. Source: FRED/ALFRED (BEA, BLS, Census), FOMC projections; model fits by this site; approval averages compiled by Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0); Gallup (1948–2024). As of October 17, 2026.
Show the numbers
| Date | Three models | Mood | Gap (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 14, 2026 | 73.0% | 43.3% | 29.7 |
| October 15, 2026 | 73.0% | 43.3% | 29.7 |
| October 16, 2026 | 73.0% | 43.3% | 29.7 |
| October 17, 2026 | 73.0% | 43.3% | 29.7 |
What moves each line
Each bar is how far one input pushes the Republican share away from an average past election. The grey bar is the edge the models give a party in power in a typical year.
Two-party popular vote, not the Electoral College. Source: FRED/ALFRED (BEA, BLS, Census), FOMC projections; model fits by this site. As of October 17, 2026.
Show the numbers
| Input | Points |
|---|---|
| Typical party-in-power edge | +1.6 |
| No incumbent on the ballot | −1.0 |
| Time the party has held power | +0.9 |
| Presidential approval | −0.8 |
| Quarters of strong growth | −0.6 |
| Party in its first term | +0.5 |
| Which party holds the White House | +0.3 |
| Real income growth per person | +0.2 |
| US war deaths | +0.2 |
| Growth per person (latest 3 quarters) | +0.1 |
Two-party popular vote, not the Electoral College. Source: approval averages compiled by Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0); Gallup (1948–2024). As of October 17, 2026.
Show the numbers
| Input | Points |
|---|---|
| Typical party-in-power edge | +1.6 |
| Presidential approval | −3.6 |
| Party in its first term | +1.5 |
Years like this one
The past elections whose economies most resemble today’s, by growth, inflation, unemployment and real income. How this is measured.
1996
Democrats held the White House and won the popular vote with 54.7%.
Growth 1.8%, inflation 2.3%, unemployment 5.2%.
1988
Republicans held the White House and won the popular vote with 53.8%.
Growth 2.0%, inflation 3.1%, unemployment 5.4%.
2024
Democrats held the White House and lost the popular vote with 49.2%.
Growth 1.6%, inflation 4.5%, unemployment 4.1%.
The four models
Fair Economy line
61%
51.0% Republican share · typical backtest error ±3.4 pts
Growth, inflation and strong-growth quarters, plus incumbency and how long the party has held power.
Bread and Peace Economy line
74%
53.1% Republican share · typical backtest error ±4.7 pts
Real income growth per person over the whole term, recent quarters weighted most, and US war deaths.
Time for Change Three-model toggle
57%
50.8% Republican share · typical backtest error ±4.6 pts
Second-quarter GDP growth, June presidential approval, and whether the party is in its first term.
Mood Mood line
43%
49.5% Republican share · typical backtest error ±3.2 pts
June presidential approval and whether the party is in its first term. Nothing else.