Alan Abramowitz, Emory · Three-model toggle

Time for Change gives Republicans 50.8% of the 2028 popular vote

That is a 57% chance of winning it. In the backtest, this model’s typical miss was ±4.6 points, so 80% of outcomes would land between 44.7% and 56.9%.

Missing 2027–28 data:Election today Fed projections

Republican share: 50.8%, with 50% and 80% ranges

Daily tracking began October 14, 2026. The bands narrow as 2028 data arrive.

Two-party popular vote, not the Electoral College. If the election were today: the latest published quarters and today’s approval stand in for 2028. Source: FRED/ALFRED (BEA, BLS, Census), FOMC projections; model fits by this site; approval averages compiled by Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0); Gallup (1948–2024). As of October 16, 2026.

Show the numbers

Time for Change: Republican two-party share and chance of winning the popular vote
Date	Share	80% range	Chance
October 14, 2026	50.8%	44.7%–56.9%	56.9%
October 15, 2026	50.8%	44.7%–56.9%	56.9%
October 16, 2026	50.8%	44.7%–56.9%	56.9%

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What pushes it up or down

Presidential approval moves this forecast most (−3.0 pts)

Two-party popular vote, not the Electoral College. Source: FRED/ALFRED (BEA, BLS, Census), FOMC projections; model fits by this site. As of October 16, 2026.

Show the numbers

Push on the Republican two-party share, percentage points
Input	Points
Typical party-in-power edge	+1.6
Presidential approval	−3.0
Party in its first term	+2.0
Latest quarter of GDP growth	+0.2

Today’s inputs against 1948–2024

Where today sits in the historical range

Grey dots are the 19 or 20 past elections; the black dot is today.

If the election were today: the latest published quarters and today’s approval stand in for 2028. Source: FRED/ALFRED (BEA, BLS, Census), FOMC projections; model fits by this site; approval averages compiled by Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0); Gallup (1948–2024). As of October 16, 2026.

Show the numbers

Year	Q2 GDP growth (first estimate)	Net approval
Today	2.2	−22.4
1948	10.0	−4.0
1952	−0.3	−26.0
1956	0.8	55.0
1960	1.6	37.0
1964	4.6	59.0
1968	5.3	−3.0
1972	8.9	23.0
1976	4.4	5.0
1980	−9.1	−27.0
1984	7.5	18.0
1988	3.1	8.0
1992	1.4	−17.0
1996	4.2	10.0
2000	5.2	15.0
2004	3.0	−1.0
2008	1.9	−40.0
2012	1.5	−2.0
2016	1.2	4.0
2020	−32.9	−19.0
2024	2.8	−20.0

How it works

Alan Abramowitz’s model combines one economic number (annualized GDP growth in the second quarter of the election year, as first published) with June presidential approval and a first-term bonus.

Because it mixes the economy with approval, it belongs to neither line. It appears on its own and in the three-model version of the economy line.

Abramowitz left 2020 out of his latest fit; here it stays in, so every model is judged on the same 20 elections.

Time for Change uses the latest quarter's growth (2026 Q2) in place of Q2 2028.

Approval: the current approval consensus stands in for June 2028.

The fitted equation

Version 1, fitted October 13, 2026 on 1948–2024 (ordinary least squares)
Term	Coefficient
Constant	48.959
Q2 GDP growth	0.180
June net approval	0.114
First-term party	4.002

Its record

Predicting each election with a version fitted without it, the model’s typical error is ±4.6 points and it called the popular-vote winner in 15 of 20 elections. It missed 1948, 1960, 1976, 2016, 2024. See every election.