This site, using the approval term of Abramowitz’s model · Mood line

Mood gives Republicans 49.5% of the 2028 popular vote

That is a 43% chance of winning it. In the backtest, this model’s typical miss was ±3.2 points, so 80% of outcomes would land between 45.2% and 53.7%.

Missing 2027–28 data:Election today Fed projections

Republican share: 49.5%, with 50% and 80% ranges

Daily tracking began October 14, 2026. The bands narrow as 2028 data arrive.

Two-party popular vote, not the Electoral College. If the election were today: the latest published quarters and today’s approval stand in for 2028. Source: approval averages compiled by Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0); Gallup (1948–2024). As of October 16, 2026.

Show the numbers

Mood: Republican two-party share and chance of winning the popular vote
Date	Share	80% range	Chance
October 14, 2026	49.5%	45.2%–53.7%	43.3%
October 15, 2026	49.5%	45.2%–53.7%	43.3%
October 16, 2026	49.5%	45.2%–53.7%	43.3%

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What pushes it up or down

Presidential approval moves this forecast most (−3.6 pts)

Two-party popular vote, not the Electoral College. Source: FRED/ALFRED (BEA, BLS, Census), FOMC projections; model fits by this site. As of October 16, 2026.

Show the numbers

Push on the Republican two-party share, percentage points
Input	Points
Typical party-in-power edge	+1.6
Presidential approval	−3.6
Party in its first term	+1.5

Today’s inputs against 1948–2024

Where today sits in the historical range

Grey dots are the 19 or 20 past elections; the black dot is today.

If the election were today: the latest published quarters and today’s approval stand in for 2028. Source: FRED/ALFRED (BEA, BLS, Census), FOMC projections; model fits by this site; approval averages compiled by Wikipedia contributors (CC BY-SA 4.0); Gallup (1948–2024). As of October 16, 2026.

Show the numbers

Year	Net approval
Today	−22.4
1948	−4.0
1952	−26.0
1956	55.0
1960	37.0
1964	59.0
1968	−3.0
1972	23.0
1976	5.0
1980	−27.0
1984	18.0
1988	8.0
1992	−17.0
1996	10.0
2000	15.0
2004	−1.0
2008	−40.0
2012	−2.0
2016	4.0
2020	−19.0
2024	−20.0

How it works

The Mood line asks what public sentiment alone implies. Its only poll input is the sitting president’s net approval (approve minus disapprove).

In the backtest that is Gallup’s last June poll. For 2028 it is the median of the published polling averages (see the Mood page).

Approval partly reflects the economy, so the two lines are not independent. The gap measures how far the mood sits from what the data alone imply.

Approval: the current approval consensus stands in for June 2028.

The fitted equation

Version 1, fitted October 13, 2026 on 1948–2024 (ordinary least squares)
Term	Coefficient
Constant	49.618
June net approval	0.139
First-term party	2.950

Its record

Predicting each election with a version fitted without it, the model’s typical error is ±3.2 points and it called the popular-vote winner in 16 of 20 elections. It missed 1948, 1960, 1976, 2020. See every election.