Douglas Hibbs · Economy line

Bread and Peace gives Republicans 53.1% of the 2028 popular vote

That is a 74% chance of winning it. In the backtest, this model’s typical miss was ±4.7 points, so 80% of outcomes would land between 46.8% and 59.3%.

Missing 2027–28 data:Election today Fed projections

Republican share: 53.1%, with 50% and 80% ranges

Daily tracking began October 14, 2026. The bands narrow as 2028 data arrive.

Two-party popular vote, not the Electoral College. If the economy follows the Fed’s projections: FOMC median projections fill the quarters through mid-2028; approval is today’s. Source: FRED/ALFRED (BEA, BLS, Census), FOMC projections; model fits by this site. As of October 17, 2026.

Show the numbers

Bread and Peace: Republican two-party share and chance of winning the popular vote
Date	Share	80% range	Chance
October 14, 2026	53.1%	46.8%–59.3%	74.0%
October 15, 2026	53.1%	46.8%–59.3%	74.0%
October 16, 2026	53.1%	46.8%–59.3%	74.0%
October 17, 2026	53.1%	46.8%–59.3%	74.0%

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What pushes it up or down

Real income growth per person moves this forecast most (+0.8 pts)

Two-party popular vote, not the Electoral College. Source: FRED/ALFRED (BEA, BLS, Census), FOMC projections; model fits by this site. As of October 17, 2026.

Show the numbers

Push on the Republican two-party share, percentage points
Input	Points
Typical party-in-power edge	+1.6
Real income growth per person	+0.8
US war deaths	+0.6

Today’s inputs against 1948–2024

Where today sits in the historical range

Grey dots are the 19 or 20 past elections; the black dot is today.

If the economy follows the Fed’s projections: FOMC median projections fill the quarters through mid-2028; approval is today’s. Source: FRED/ALFRED (BEA, BLS, Census), FOMC projections; model fits by this site. As of October 17, 2026.

Show the numbers

Year	Weighted real income growth
Today	1.9
1948	3.6
1952	3.0
1956	2.0
1960	0.5
1964	5.7
1968	1.3
1972	3.7
1976	1.3
1980	−2.1
1984	4.1
1988	2.5
1992	−0.7
1996	1.3
2000	0.8
2004	0.5
2008	−2.7
2012	0.5
2016	1.4
2020	2.0
2024	1.6

How it works

Douglas Hibbs’s model uses just two things: how fast real disposable income per person grew over the term, and US military deaths in wars the party in power started.

Recent quarters count most. How fast older quarters fade is estimated from the data (λ below).

Income is deflated by the consumer price index, as in Hibbs’s papers. The election quarter itself isn’t published before election day, so the latest quarter used is July–September.

If the economy follows the Fed's projections (FOMC median, 2026-09-16): quarters after 2026 Q2 grow at the projected rate for their year; PCE inflation stands in for the GDP deflator; income per person grows with GDP per person.

The fitted equation

Version 1, fitted October 13, 2026 on 1948–2024 (ordinary least squares)
Term	Coefficient
Constant	49.378
Weighted real income growth	1.903
War deaths (thousands)	−0.221
Lag weight λ	0.580

Its record

Predicting each election with a version fitted without it, the model’s typical error is ±4.7 points and it called the popular-vote winner in 15 of 20 elections. It missed 1952, 1960, 1976, 2020, 2024. See every election.